{"id":75,"date":"2018-07-15T20:20:39","date_gmt":"2018-07-15T20:20:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/?p=75"},"modified":"2025-05-31T11:47:48","modified_gmt":"2025-05-31T18:47:48","slug":"the-fermi-paradox","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/?p=75","title":{"rendered":"The Fermi Paradox"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Physicist Enrico Fermi noticed that given the vastness of space, and the huge amount of time available, the odds are good that some alien species should have figured out interstellar travel and colonized the galaxy by now. \u00a0So where are they? It\u2019s a good question and the answer, whatever the answer, comes with profound spiritual implications.
<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1950, Enrico Fermi, the nuclear physicist, asked a very simple, but very profound question.\u00a0 He asked, \u201cWhere are they?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cthey\u201d in his question is extra-terrestrial intelligent life forms:\u00a0 intelligent life on some other planet than the earth.\u00a0 Extra-terrestrial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhere are they?\u201d simply asks, if there are other forms of intelligent life in our galaxy, or beyond our galaxy in the observable universe, why haven\u2019t we detected them?\u00a0 Why isn\u2019t there evidence for them?\u00a0 Why haven\u2019t our old episodes of \u201cI Love Lucy\u201d, broadcast out from earth, passed their old episodes of their old TV sitcoms coming in?\u00a0 Why is it that everywhere we look, using all the different modes of detection that we have available to us, we don\u2019t see evidence, in decades of trying, that we are anything but alone?\u00a0 \u201cWhere are they?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The universe is a very big place.\u00a0 Astronomers estimate that there are 100 to 400 billion stars in our Milky Way galaxy.\u00a0 And there are about 100 billion galaxies in the observable universe.\u00a0 \u201cBillions and billions\u201d as Carl Sagan used to say, of places where intelligent life could exist.\u00a0 We know there are planets around some of those stars.\u00a0 And some of those planets are Earth-like enough that they could support life.\u00a0 And if life gets started somewhere, it seems likely that eventually intelligent life would evolve, just as it did here.\u00a0 That might take awhile but the universe is over 13 billion years old so there\u2019s plenty of time.\u00a0 And then, eventually, it\u2019s only one more small step to assume that at least some of the intelligent life out there would get sufficiently advanced that they would start doing things that we could detect, like inventing televisions and broadcasting sitcoms into space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that\u2019s a long string of probabilities.\u00a0 But even if all of those probabilities are very small, very rare, almost never happens, when you start with 100 to 400 billion possible stars just in our galaxy alone, and then multiple that by another 100 billion galaxies, and give yourself a 13 billion year timespan, even a very rare event becomes very possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019re here, after all, so we know it\u2019s possible for intelligent life to exist in the universe.\u00a0 Wouldn\u2019t it seem almost unfathomably unlikely that in all those billions of possibilities we are the only ones?\u00a0 Indeed, when you put it that way, a lot of people are quick to affirm, \u201cWell of course, we are not alone.\u00a0 Absolutely intelligent life is out there.\u00a0 It would be arrogant to assume otherwise.\u00a0 We can\u2019t possibly be that special.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that is Fermi\u2019s Paradox.\u00a0 Logically, extra-terrestrial intelligent life must exist.\u00a0 But observationally, we have no evidence for it.\u00a0 So, as Enrico Fermi asks, \u201cWhere are they?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1961, about 10 years after Fermi asked his question, another man, named Frank Drake, attempted to quantify all of the variables that are implicit in assessing the likelihood of extra-terrestrial intelligence.\u00a0\u00a0 He came up with a string of variables, multiplied together in the form of an equation, the result being a number that would tell us the probability for the existence of extra-terrestrial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is what Drake said we would have to know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, we would want to know the average rate at which new stars are formed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then how many of those stars have planets<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then, how many of those planets are suitable for life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far so good.\u00a0 Because we have pretty good estimates for all of those.\u00a0 And the trend line since 1961 has actually been getting consistently better for the odds of extra-terrestrial intelligent life.\u00a0 We used to think that habitable planets were fairly rare.\u00a0 Better observations in the last few years say that earth-like planets in the habitable zone, meaning the right distance from the parent star to allow for the existence of liquid water, are pretty common.\u00a0 Astronomers estimate that about 20% of stars are like our sun, and about 20% of those sun-like stars have habitable planets orbiting them.\u00a0 That gives us a lot of likely planets:\u00a0 at least 4 billion just in our galaxy.\u00a0 In fact, the closet habitable planet outside our solar system is only 12 light years away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then it gets trickier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once you know how many planets you\u2019re talking about, then the Drake equation asks you to fill in the number of planets where life emerges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then, the number of planets with life where intelligent life evolves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then, the number of planets with intelligent life who are sufficiently intelligent to develop the technology that would make them deliberately or accidentally detectable to interstellar communication.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And finally, you would need to know, given that all the other conditions are happily met and you actually have an intelligent life form capable of interstellar communication \u2013 how long are they likely to last in that fortunate state?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem with the Drake equation is that the first three elements can be known fairly accurately, but the final 4 elements are fairly unknowable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How many planets have life?\u00a0 Well we\u2019re the only one we know about, so far.\u00a0 So your guess is as good as mine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How many planets with life have intelligent life?\u00a0 Well we know exactly one example, so far.\u00a0 It\u2019s us. How many intelligent life forms are capable of interstellar communication?\u00a0 Well just one, so far, just us.\u00a0 So your guess is as good as mine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And how long do those civilizations last?\u00a0 Well human beings have been broadcasting radio messages since the early 20th\u00a0century.\u00a0 We\u2019ve lasted a little over a hundred years at that level of technological capacity.\u00a0 How much longer will human beings continue to be around?\u00a0 Well your guess is as good as mine.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem with the Drake equation is that once you get past the first three elements, which are fairly objective and knowable, your get to four elements that are pretty entirely unknowable and subjective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So the problem is that what numbers you plug into the Drake equation after the first three elements is pretty much based on your personal bias.\u00a0 The Drake equation attempts to answer the question, \u201cHow likely is extra-terrestrial intelligent life?\u201d by giving you an equation that requires you to plug in guesses based on your pre-conceived answer to the same question.\u00a0 If you\u2019re optimistic about the likelihood of extraterrestrial intelligence you\u2019ll plug in optimistic numbers; if you\u2019re pessimistic, you\u2019ll plug in pessimistic numbers.\u00a0 And then, because all the numbers get multiplied together the final answers that people get from the equation can vary by several orders of magnitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frank Drake\u2019s original estimate from 1961 is that there were somewhere between 1000 and 100 million advanced civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.\u00a0 Where are they, indeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the way, Frank Drake is a pretty interesting guy.\u00a0 He worked with Carl Sagan to design the plaques on the Pioneer space probes and the golden records on Voyager I and II that are meant to document life on earth to any space alien who happens to pick them up somewhere out there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fermi Paradox is that it seems, at first thought, that extra-terrestrial intelligence should be common, but our objective evidence so far is that extra-terrestrial intelligence doesn\u2019t exist at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So people have spent the last 70 years attempting to resolve the paradox.\u00a0 That was the interesting question that I wanted to consider in the context of writing a sermon for worship.\u00a0 They must be out there, we\u2019re looking, so why haven\u2019t we seen them?\u00a0 Where are they?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One answer, is that they don\u2019t want to be seen.\u00a0 This is a common theme in science fiction.\u00a0 The galactic federation has decided that earthlings are not suitable to join the team.\u00a0 Usually the reason is that we\u2019re too dangerous.\u00a0 We\u2019re too warlike.\u00a0 The galactic federation knows we exist, but for their own protection they have set-up some kind of a communication shield around our planet that protects us from knowing about them until such time as they decide we are sufficiently ready to join the peaceful universal community.\u00a0 We\u2019re like a planetary toddler in a galactic time-out.\u00a0 We\u2019re being monitored by more advanced civilizations to see whether we\u2019re going to grow up, or destroy ourselves first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That we might destroy ourselves first is a different, gloomy answer to the Fermi Paradox.\u00a0 Perhaps, the reason there are no extra-terrestrial intelligent civilizations out there, is that, every time a species develops the technology necessary for interstellar communication, that same level of technological advancement also, always, results in that civilization destroying itself.\u00a0 Enrico Fermi articulated the Fermi Paradox in 1950, when he was working at Los Alamos to develop the Hydrogen Bomb.\u00a0 The irony was not lost on him that at the point where our science had advanced to the point where we might start to wonder about interstellar communication we were using that science to develop a hydrogen bomb that might kill us all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maybe that\u2019s just the universal rule.\u00a0 Sufficiently high technology to reach the stars always creates its own demise before a civilization actually does reach the stars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That answer to the Fermi Paradox is known, generally, as The Great Filter.\u00a0 The Great Filter assumes that every other element of the Drake Equation makes intelligent life possible:\u00a0 lots of stars, lots of planets, life getting formed all the time, intelligent life evolving naturally, but, every life form of sufficient intelligence eventually reaches a filter that stops them from evolving any further and either sends them back to the stone age, or wipes them out altogether.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That kind of answer pertains to the last of the variables in the Drake Equation.\u00a0 How long do sufficiently advanced civilizations last?\u00a0 We\u2019ve only been deliberately looking for extra-terrestrial intelligence for about 60 years.\u00a0 Maybe they were around earlier and we missed them.\u00a0 Or maybe we\u2019re ahead of the game and we need to wait a few years, or a few thousand years, or a few tens of thousands of years, for the next civilization out there to catch up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But none of these possible solutions to the Fermi Paradox really satisfy.\u00a0 The problem with all of these solutions is that they all exchange one unlikely scenario, that we are the only intelligent life in the universe, with other unlikely scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take the Galactic Federation, for instance.\u00a0 How likely is it, really, that all the other intelligent civilizations in the universe, found each other, agreed to cooperate with each other, and all agreed that they would develop a perfect communications black out with the Earth?\u00a0 Well you can say it\u2019s likely or it\u2019s not likely, but in either case you are speculating about alien sociology of which you can have absolutely zero actual knowledge.\u00a0 That\u2019s good enough for science fiction but not for, you know, actual science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or take the early or late developers scenarios.\u00a0 What\u2019s the likelihood that alien intelligence is common and out of all of those other civilizations we happened to come in dead last, or uncontested first?\u00a0 Well you might say it\u2019s likely or it\u2019s not likely, but in either case there\u2019s no real reason to accept the improbability of those scenarios as any better than the improbability that we are actually the only intelligence in the universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And so, the Fermi Paradox has persisted for about 70 years now, since Enrico Fermi first articulated it.\u00a0 Resolving the paradox has proved impossible.\u00a0 Why is it that extra-terrestrial intelligence ought to be common, and yet we don\u2019t see it at all?\u00a0 Where are they?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then, last year, a group of scientists from Oxford published a paper that doesn\u2019t resolve the Fermi Paradox, but dissolves the Fermi Paradox, as they say.\u00a0 They conclude there really isn\u2019t a paradox, at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A paradox is when you hold two ideas, both true, but in conflict with each other.\u00a0 By logic, extra-terrestrial intelligence ought to exist.\u00a0 By observation, extra-terrestrial intelligence doesn\u2019t exist.\u00a0 If both of those are true, you have a paradox.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Oxford scientists say the paradox is dissolved when we show that actually, extra-terrestrial intelligence is not likely.\u00a0 Our first-thought, best guess, logic, is wrong.\u00a0 By their calculations it is entirely plausible that we are the only intelligent species capable of interstellar communication in the galaxy, and even in the entire observable universe.\u00a0 So when we look up and see nothing there\u2019s no reason to be surprised.\u00a0 There\u2019s no paradox to solve.\u00a0 \u201cWhere are they?\u201d\u00a0 Well who are you talking about?\u00a0 We are it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the scientists did is go back to the Drake equation.\u00a0 They plugged in the current best estimates we have for the first three elements of the equation, the ones that are fairly objective and knowable.\u00a0 But then, for the next four, they did two things.\u00a0 First they made their own best guesses, based on research of prior papers on the subject, but they also included a factor that represents the uncertainty of their estimates turning their specific guesses into probability ranges.\u00a0 Then they did the same thing with no guesses of their own but simply using all of the previous guesses discovered in their research and used that as a probability range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then, they subjected the resulting data to a Monte Carlo analysis.\u00a0 This is a method of computational analysis that runs large numbers of random samples from data sets that contain high amounts of variables.\u00a0 If you\u2019ve ever followed some of the predictions that Nate Silver does at Five Thirty Eight it\u2019s the same thing.\u00a0 You pick data points at random from all the probability fields and you keep the computer running until it has done hundreds of thousands of possible combinations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s obviously a lot of math in their paper, but here\u2019s the bottom line.\u00a0 The authors conclude that there is a 52% probability that we are alone in our galaxy and a 38% probability that we are alone in all the observable universe.\u00a0 Furthermore, when the authors update their initial run based on the Drake equation, to include the actual observations we have of alien intelligence (which is none, so far) the probability that we are alone expands.\u00a0 In the galaxy a range of 53% to 99.6% probability that we are alone \u2013 almost certainly alone.\u00a0 In the observable universe a range of 39% to 85% probability that we are alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paradox dissolves.\u00a0 There is no paradox.\u00a0 Finding no evidence of alien intelligence is exactly what we would expect, or at least there\u2019s a high probability of that outcome.\u00a0 So there\u2019s no explanation required.\u00a0 We seem to be alone because we are in fact, probably, alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So no explanation required.\u00a0 But here, perhaps, some theology is required.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What would it mean for us to be alone in the universe?\u00a0 What would that cosmic solitude do to our spirits?\u00a0 What if, \u201cover my head,\u201d there were nothing but stars, and planets, and maybe some kind of life on some of those planets, but probably on none of them anyone looking up with the same wonder and speculation that we Earthlings do?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sure we come from the stars, but what if, out of all those billions and billions of stars only we swam up from the sea, stood up on the land, and reached back to the sky with longing?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In my twenty-one years of ministry, I\u2019ve never had occasion to sing the hymn that we sang just before my sermon, \u201cChildren of the Human Race.\u201d\u00a0 Now, I question, whether its simple assurance that we aren\u2019t alone in the universe, might just have been proved an unjustified hope?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most human religions begin from the premise that humanity has a privileged place in the cosmic order.\u00a0 We are the receivers of God\u2019s special attention, God\u2019s work and God\u2019s love.\u00a0 We are the chosen people.\u00a0 Jesus came to us.\u00a0 Only enlightened humans can escape the cycle of rebirth.\u00a0 Most religions claim among life on earth only humanity participates in any kind of salvation story and they have nothing to say at all about possible life beyond earth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That always seemed incredibly arrogant to me.\u00a0 Unitarian Universalism emphasizes the interdependent web of all existence.\u00a0 We\u2019re Universalists, after all.\u00a0 Human existence is merely a part of the system that includes all.\u00a0 We follow the science that shows us how connected we are to other life forms, not a special creation but fellow-organisms with swallow and snail and whale.\u00a0 Christianity was struck to its core when Copernicus said the earth wasn\u2019t at the center of creation.\u00a0 Unitarian Universalists are happy to accept our place as residents of a minor planet, circling a small star, on the outside of a lesser arm, of a run-of the-mill spiral galaxy called the Milky Way, itself just one of a 100 billion galaxies flung across infinite space.\u00a0 It\u2019s not about us, we\u2019re happy to say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what, then, if it is?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What if we do have a privileged place in the cosmos?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could our religion survive humanity being shoved back in to the center, the way that Christianity survived Copernicus\u2019 shove out of the center?\u00a0 We\u2019ve learned to be so humble about our common place in the universe.\u00a0 What if, instead, we need to accept the responsibility of being caretakers of an extremely precious status?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I imagined when I started thinking about the Fermi Paradox that I would wrestle with the idea of the Great Filter, the idea that civilizations that achieve great scientific advancement inevitably risk destroying themselves by their own achievements.\u00a0 Instead, I face a prospect even more daunting.\u00a0 At least, if we\u2019re not alone in the universe, if we do end up destroying ourselves, we could imagine that somewhere, sometime, some other civilization might at last be able to avoid the Great Filter and survive.\u00a0 If not us, someone, maybe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if we are the only ones, then the responsibility to get this right becomes not just a wistful hope but a solemn, solemn duty.\u00a0 Our advanced intelligence becomes not just a pleasant accident, a fun feature of this human life, but a precious birthright we must respect and protect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That we might be it, alone in the universe, takes every principle of our faith and multiplies its importance by orders of magnitude:\u00a0 the inherent worth and dignity of every person, compassion in human relations, acceptance of one another, the goal of world community with peace, liberty and justice for all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we have failed to recognize the precious worth of every human being before, and the awesome responsibility to protect a planetary environment that supports intelligent life before, surely, surely, we must not fail to recognize it now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Physicist Enrico Fermi noticed that given the vastness of space, and the huge amount of time available, the odds are… Read more The Fermi Paradox<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sermons","category-writing"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=75"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4256,"href":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75\/revisions\/4256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=75"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=75"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rhmcd.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=75"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}